Kenya has been besieged by relentless rainfall since early November, causing catastrophic floods that have significantly escalated the Kenya flooding death toll to seventy since March. The destruction, highlighted by the overflowing of rivers such as the Dawa in Mandera County, has displaced thousands, painting a grim picture of the challenges faced by the affected communities.
With the death toll climbing and over 45,000 individuals displaced, the situation underscores the urgent need for comprehensive response strategies and highlights the broader implications of climate change on vulnerable regions. The article will explore the extent of the disaster, government and community responses, and the crucial role of climate change in shaping future preparedness.
Extent of the Disaster
Overview of Damage and Loss
1. Human Impact
- Nearly 61,380 people have been directly affected by the floods.
- Significant loss of life, with seventy-one fatalities reported, and many more displaced or directly impacted.
2. Infrastructure Destruction
- Over 25,269 acres of farmland destroyed, disrupting food security.
- Considerable damage to roads, bridges, schools, and health facilities, complicating rescue and relief efforts.
3. Residential Damage
- Thousands of homes have been destroyed or severely damaged.
- In Mandera and Wajir, many shops have run out of supplies or closed, exacerbating the crisis.
Agricultural Devastation
1. Livestock and Crop Loss
- More than 13,400 livestock deaths, a critical blow to the livelihoods of many families.
- Destruction of over 17,600 acres of farmland, affecting the agricultural output and food supply.
2. Economic Impact
- The loss of livestock and crops has jeopardized the economic stability of numerous communities, particularly in northeastern Kenya.
Health and Sanitation Crisis
1. Waterborne Diseases
- 231 reported cases of cholera due to compromised water and sanitation systems.
- Distribution of mosquito nets and drinking water to combat the spread of malaria and diarrhoea.
2. Disruption of Healthcare
- Prolonged power failures and damaged infrastructure have severely disrupted healthcare services.
- Limited access to medical supplies and challenges in patient referrals to county hospitals.
Environmental and Additional Challenges
1. Exacerbated by Previous Conditions
- The severity of the floods is heightened by preceding drought conditions, leaving the soil unable to properly absorb water.
- Historical context of environmental challenges, including the worst drought in four decades followed by intense El Niño rains.
2. Regional Impact
- The disaster has not only affected Kenya but also neighbouring countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, and Tanzania, indicating a regional crisis.
- Ongoing rains expected to continue into January 2024, suggesting prolonged challenges for the affected regions.
Government Response and Relief Efforts
Immediate Financial and Humanitarian Assistance
1. Financial Allocations and Emergency Funds
- Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua announced the allocation of Ksh4 billion for immediate response efforts. This fund aims to address critical needs such as the resettlement of displaced families, restoration of damaged infrastructure like bridges, and activation of the National Disaster Response Centre.
2. International Aid
- The USAID has committed $1 million in immediate humanitarian assistance to support relief efforts. This funding will provide emergency shelter, relief commodities, and hygiene kits to approximately 100,000 displaced families.
Health and Prevention Measures
3. Health Initiatives
- The Ministry of Health, in collaboration with WHO Kenya, is conducting rapid needs assessments and delivering essential aid. These efforts are crucial for preventing the spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera and malaria in the affected regions.
Support from Non-Governmental Organizations
4. Red Cross and Partner Initiatives
- The Kenya Red Cross Society, with support from international funds like the IFRC Disaster Response Emergency Fund, has allocated substantial resources for preparedness and immediate relief. This includes CHF 750,000 to support 6,000 households in the most affected areas.
Long-term Preparedness and Recovery
5. Scaling Lifesaving Activities
- An Emergency Appeal has been launched with a funding requirement of CHF 18 million to enable the KRCS to expand their emergency response and reach 50,000 households across thirty-six counties. This plan includes early recovery activities and continued lifesaving interventions in priority areas such as Tana River, Garissa, and Mandera.
Infrastructure and Community Resilience
6. Infrastructure Repair and Community Support
- The National Youth Service is mobilized to assist in resettling displaced families, unblocking drainage systems, and managing waterways and dams to prevent further damage. This initiative is part of the broader effort to enhance community resilience against future flooding events.
Impact of Climate Change
Climate Phenomena and Intensified Rainfall
1. Natural Climate Phenomena Impact
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Key drivers of the heavy rains impacting Kenya and the broader East African region.
2. Increased Rainfall Intensity
- Global Warming Contribution: Nearly doubled the intensity of rainfall.
- Human-Caused Climate Change: Rain intensity up to two times more severe due to anthropogenic factors.
Environmental and Societal Challenges
3. Rising Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- World Meteorological Organization Warning: Increased emissions leading to more severe climatic events.
4. Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs
- Urgent Adaptation Measures: Necessary to address the ongoing and future climate-related challenges.
- Regional Approach: Advocated for effectively managing the crisis across Eastern Africa.
Predictions and Projections
5. Future Climate Outlook
- Forecast for 2024: Above-average rainfall expected to continue, exacerbating current conditions.
- Water Scarcity Concerns: Projected decline in per capita water availability, intensifying drought conditions amidst heavy rainfall episodes.
6. Frequency of Extreme Weather
- Climate Change Impact: Increased occurrence of extreme weather events, including both droughts and heavy rainfall.
- Compounding Factors: Inadequate infrastructure and rapid urban development worsening the effects.
Looking Ahead
Flood Risk Management Initiatives
1. National Climate Change Adaptation Planning
Flood risk management is identified as a priority in Kenya’s national climate change adaptation planning. This focus underlines the government’s commitment to addressing the frequent flooding issues exacerbated by climate change.
2. Development of Early Warning Systems
A recent paper by the GDPC highlights the need for improved end-to-end flood early warning systems. These improvements are crucial for timely responses to flood threats, potentially saving lives and reducing economic losses.
3. Technological Advancements in Flood Prediction
The introduction of coupled ensemble flow forecasting and new flood inundation simulation models are significant advancements in flood management. These technologies help in predicting flood patterns more accurately, aiding in better preparation and response strategies.
4. Institutional Capacities and Framework Development
The absence of a national flood risk management framework poses a significant challenge. Enhancing institutional capacities and formalizing a comprehensive framework is a critical step forward for effective flood management in Kenya.
5. Impact-based Forecasting Implementation
Utilizing Impact-based Forecasting (IbF) systems, which incorporate vulnerability and exposure data, can significantly improve the effectiveness of flood risk management strategies.
6. Google’s Flood Hub Utilization
Google’s Flood Hub provides advanced AI-powered flood prediction and prevention tools. It offers up to seven-day flood forecasts, which are instrumental in preparing for and mitigating the impact of imminent flooding.
These initiatives collectively aim to bolster Kenya’s resilience against future flooding events, ensuring that the nation is better prepared to manage the challenges posed by increased rainfall and severe weather conditions linked to climate change.
